Saturday, July 21, 2018
Why Democrats lose at least eleven Senate elections: including Sen. Robert Menendez
By Kevin Collins
In earlier posts I have made the flat assertion the Republicans, however undeserving they are, will win 11 Democrat Senate seats from the crashing Democrats. I stand by that prediction.
One of the races that will be seen as an upset by a lot of people, will be the Democrats' loss of Bob Menendez's seat in New Jersey. That loss will bring the Democrats' loss total to eleven. He will lose to Republican challenger Bob Hugin.
Those who only read yesterday’s headlines probably laughed at this confident prediction and probably didn’t even “bother” to read the reasoning behind it. That makes no difference; it's going to happen anyway.
My initial reaction to Hugin’s campaign was to note that he was “running” away from President Trump saying, “I’m a different kind of Republican.”
He is. He has conservative credentials – former Marine officer – small business owner – self financed – okay so far but what else?
He is pro- choice and boasts, “I’ll stand up to anyone, even the current occupant of the White House to stand up for New Jersey.” In a state like New Jersey he is hitting all the right notes for a Republican trying to win a statewide election.
Hugin’s first month of campaigning consisted of a steady stream of the same TV spot pounding Menendez for his slithering out of a corruption trial – in Newark of course. Since the spots were on broadcast TV it was easy to see that he meant business, is well financed, and intends to win. All of which sounds very much like the “…current occupant of the White House.”
After a month, the first poll came out; and its results were as weird as anyone has ever seen. It showed Menendez leading 28 to 24, yes 28 to 24 with 46% undecided. This was a sure tip that Menendez is in trouble.
The guy is running for US Senate from a deep Blue State for the third time. In 2012 running with Barack Obama, Menendez won by 59/40 with Barack Obama winning New Jersey by 58/40. Now he is at 28% with 46% “undecided?”
The second poll in this race was just released and while its results are not weird, they are very scary for Senator Menendez.
A Gravis Poll shows Hugin trailing by just 43/41 with a 4.1 Margin of Error (which means Hugin could be leading already) and 16% “undecided.” This is BIG trouble for a Democrat incumbent in a Blue state in a year that Trump is right across the Hudson River.
Moreover, “A majority of voters–56 percent in total, split 28 percent apiece–say Menendez’s corruption trial is either somewhat or heavily impacting their voting decision.” Everybody in New Jersey knew Menendez would walk from a sham “trial” in his own neighborhood and almost 60% want to right that wrong.
No matter what Menendez says or does he cannot escape numbers like this. What’s more the 9% who say they are “not sure” if Menendez's corruption trial will impact their vote are there for Hugin’s taking. It is likely they do think it is an important factor but they just don’t want to say it out loud.
The importance of this very weak showing cannot be overstated as it relates to National Democrats’ hopes for being able to pick off a few Republican House seats in New Jersey.
This “blood in the water” news will energize New Jersey Republicans as they have not been energized and enthused about voting in many years. Conversely, it is clear that New Jersey Democrats are not enthusiastic about voting for Menendez which will be more trouble in November.
When he gets his visit from the new leader of the Democrat Party, Alexandria Ocasio – Cortez and is handed the platform he MUST run on, if Menendez caves in he is finished.
If he doesn’t he will find himself fighting her AND Hugin. She is right next door in New York City and has just announced she wants her Crazies to start “occupying” airports. If she picks Newark Airport what will Menendez do?
Remember the ridiculous Survey Monkey has Joe Manchin from West Virginia (where Trump won by 42 points) and Jon Tester of Montana (who won by just 3.5% in 2012), both leading by the same 12 points that Debbie Stabenow is leading by in Michigan where Trump won by just .3% in 2016.
Does that make any sense at all? Of course not.
In 2016 Survey Monkey was exposed by Wikileaks as a willing collaborator with NBC to produce fake polls showing Hillary Clinton leading. They are back to making things up again.
Bob Menendez goes in the loser bin and along with Bill Nelson of Florida, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and Jon Tester of Montana. Menendez makes number seven and counting.
The other four will be identified in a future installment.