Monday, December 18, 2017

Chinese security experts warn Beijing to prepare for war with North Korea

The following article appeared on the American Thinker on December 17th

A glimpse into the thinking of the Chinese government on North Korea reveals that Beijing is concerned about being dragged into  war on the Korean peninsula and that "North Korea is a time bomb" waiting to explode.

Various Chinese security experts who advise the government made it clear at a conference last week that there is a real fear in Beijing that the situation between the US and North Korea may be beyond any diplomatic solution.

“Conditions on the peninsula now make for the biggest risk of a war in decades,” said Shi Yinhong, director of the Center on American Studies at Renmin University of China in Beijing and an adviser to the State Council of China on diplomacy issues since February 2011, during the conference. “North Korea is a time bomb. We can only delay the explosion, hoping that by delaying it, a time will come to remove the detonator,” he added, reported the South China Morning Post Saturday.

Wang Hongguang, former deputy commander of the Nanjing Military Region, an important military region, warned that a war could begin as soon as March, when South Korea and the United States are slated to hold annual military drills. “It is a highly dangerous period,” Wang said during the conference. “Northeast China should mobilize defenses for war.” 
Chinese officials have sought to improve relations with North Korea amid unusually high tensions between Pyongyang and world leaders over the reclusive nation's growing nuclear program. But local governments in China have also taken precautions to prepare for conflict in case various diplomatic gestures do not succeed. Earlier this month, a government newspaper in China’s northeastern province of Jilin on the North Korean border published a full-page article advising residents on how to survive a nuclear attack, Quartz reported.

“It’s natural that Jilin province is more sensitive to the situation on the Korean peninsula, given its special geographic location. It’s necessary for the provincial paper to publish information on nuclear weapons,” wrote state tabloid Global Times in an editorial.

As its largest trading partner and main source of food, China is North Korea's most significant ally. It has recently embraced new U.N. sanctions against North Korea while also calling for dialogue. U.S. officials, however, have urged China to do more to temper its neighbor's global threats and nuclear ambitions, Politico has reported.

US domestic concerns have mostly shoved North Korea into the background, but our military buildup and pressure continues and South Korea now appears to be reluctantly coming along with administration policy and strategy. They have embraced the joint military exercises we've been carrying out and while they are still calling for "dialogue" with the North (as is Japan) they appear to be preparing for war. 
Kim at the U.N.
So 20 years of US dithering and kicking the can down the road on North Korea's nuclear and ICBM program appears to be coming to a head during the Trump administration. Both Democratic and Republican presidents failed to stop the Kim family from constructing a weapon that can threaten United States territory.  Now, an intolerable situation must be remedied by any means necessary.

Trump will get the blame for any conflict on the Korean peninsula but a reckoning with North Korea over their nuclear program has only become necessary because of our failure to address the problem when the cost would have been much less. The same people who have urged restraint on North Korea for 20 years will now be advocating that we accept a nuclear North Korea capable of striking US cities in the name of "peace." And they will be the first to stick their face in front of a camera to denounce Trump for doing what they didn't have the balls to do in the first place.

Personally, I think the Chinese view that there will be war in March of next year is optimistic. The next nuclear test or missile test by Kim will be seen by the administration as sufficient provocation to remove the threat. How they go about that militarily will determine how bad the war gets. 

Ed.  As darlings of the U.N. I expect China will look to the United States to deal with Kim and his delusions of grandeur.  And I wouldn't be surprised if Trump were to do just that, in a very direct and undiplomatic way.

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