Tuesday, August 7, 2018
Why Lou Barletta will win the Pennsylvania Senate race
By Kevin Collins
At this point the so called “polls” are virtually useless. They under poll Republicans and over poll Democrats. They are produced by the same liars who told us Hillary Clinton had a 95% chance of winning.
The only ones that have any meaning are the ones that show Republicans leading. This is not a support of the “home team”; but rather a recognition that the polls are just as skewed left now as they were in 2016.
Any lead for a Republican is reported only when a poll is forced to report it which really means he/she is leading by substantially more.
We will not be able to cite polls for at least 6 weeks when the campaigns will have heated up to full speed.
Consequently, the surest way to predict what will happen in elections for Senate is to look at fundamentals in a particular state.
Last week President Donald Trump went into Pennsylvania, a state we won in 2016, to campaign with and for Republican Senate nominee Congressman Lou Barletta.
As usual, the event was a smash hit with fake news outlets falling into Trump’s traps and people cheering wildly for him and Barletta.
At this point Barletta’s only problem is name recognition. Trump’s rally went a long way toward fixing that problem. People in Pennsylvania now know who to vote for to get rid of “Sleeping Bob” Casey the Democrat.
The success of Donald Trump’s economic initiatives, and voter trends drawn from 2016 exit polls show a clear advantage for Barletta.
The first advantage is that Pennsylvania is going back to work. The Keystone State is 5th in the nation in jobs created year to year since June 2017.
The latest unemployment figures for Pennsylvania show it was among the top ten in jobs recovery shaving .2% off its unemployment rolls.
Nevertheless, voters know there is still more to be done in bring Pennsylvania to a par with the rest of the nation.
Voters know Democrat Bob Casey, who voted against Trump’s Tax Cuts and wants to reverse them, is not the answer to getting full employment in their state.
The seeds of Barletta’s victory were sown in 2016 and an examination of which Pennsylvanians voted and how they voted proves this.
Perhaps the most intriguing voter data is from the African American numbers.
The signs of a coming Trump victory were there a week before the election when two separate surveys showed African Americans intended to vote for Trump at a rate of 16% and 20% respectively.
In the final count it was just 8%, but the numbers turned out to be indicative of trouble for Democrat Hillary Clinton anyway, The percentage of the overall vote from African Americans fell to just 10%.
That was 2% less than the national average and 3% less than the percentage of the 2012 electorate represented by African American voters.
Today we see that the percentage of African Americans who approve of Trump ranges anywhere from 16% to 29% depending on the survey.
While even the lower number would be a crushing blow to Casey, combined with a recent Survey Monkey finding that only 53% of African Americans self-Identify as Democrats it is a gut punch.
Remember Barack Obama got an average of 94% of the Black vote in his elections with identical 13% of the electorate being Black.
Hillary Clinton’s percentages of the Black vote fell to 89% with 12% of the electorate being Black.
A recent survey of 4636 Registered African American voters found 73% said they would vote Democrat with 11% saying they “don’t know or refused to say.”
While not as bad as the findings in other surveys, those are devastating numbers for Casey and other Senate Democrats trying to be reelected.
If only those African American Pennsylvanians who self-identify as Democrats voted for Casey that would mean Blacks who voted 92% Democrat in 2016 would be barely more than half of what they were just two years ago.
As we examine the age ladder starting from the youngest voters, things get really bad for Casey.
A recent poll published by The Atlantic magazine, no friend of a free America, showed just 28% of young voters were certain to vote this year.
These voters were 16% of Pennsylvania’s 2016 voters and they voted 53% for Hillary Clinton.
By contrast 74% of seniors who made up a combined 51% of 2016 voters in Pennsylvania, said they were certain to vote. They voted 53% for Trump.
White voters were 81% of those who voted in Pennsylvania in 2016 and they voted for Trump 56/40.
A recent IBD/TIPP Poll showed the National Mood to be brightening. Proprietary Quality of Life Index rose 7% for the month of July to 64.2. This is the highest ever! Closest to this number was 63.1 set in 2004.
Where does the necessary support for a Casey reelection come from?
You tell me.