Saturday, July 14, 2018
Why the Democrats lose at least 11 Senate seats
Part One: Montana and West Virginia
By Kevin Collins
A recent Survey Monkey poll (exposed by Wiki leaks as a Democrat collaborator willing to create fake poll results) showed bad news for a few Democrat Senators who will be running for re-election in states won by Donald Trump in 2016. This “survey” is a pile of crap that makes no sense.
The popular interpretation of the results of the recently released Survey Monkey (SM) polls are wrong. They surveyed the re-election chances of Democrat Senators in states that were won by Donald Trump in 2016. SM found four of these vulnerable Democrats were already behind; and given the political realities of their states, they are headed for defeat.
They are Phil Bredesen of Tennessee, Bill Nelson of Florida, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Donnelly of Indiana.
There is no argument that these four will lose.
Nevertheless, saying that this list from SM is dampening the spirits of the Democrat rank and file is 180 degrees wrong.
Included in this list are a number of other Democrats who will also lose; but thanks to SM they are being portrayed as leading and in control.
They too will lose because they are no different from the Democrats SM identifies as in danger. They are all “just another Democrat.”
SM saying Claire McCaskill is leading (by 2 points) in Missouri which is ridiculous. A new Remington poll shows her down 2 points and moving in the wrong direction.
Remington polled “1034 voters” without providing a breakdown of their party affiliation; but an indicator of who might have been surveyed can be found in a companion question.
In Missouri, a state Trump won by 19 points, the idea of making Missouri a Right To Work State was disapproved 56/38. Did Remington over sample Democrats and still fail to get McCaskill a lead?
When McCaskill is juxtaposed with any of those already down and on their way out no substantive differences can be found. They all share the central characteristic of being “just another Democrat.” Being “just another Democrat” this year won’t get them re-elected and it won’t get McCaskill re-elected either.
That covers five of the twelve races SM reported on. I suspect the purpose of SM’s report was not at all to depress the Democrat rank and file but to try to lift their morale.
They can read. In their hearts most of them know they never had a chance to win control of the Senate; but SM’s report shows them some reason to believe they will not get completely wiped out and lose eleven seats.
Two of the most ridiculous of SM’s remaining “surveys,” are from Montana and West Virginia.
The Montana result of SM’s "poll" says Jon Tester has a 12-point lead! REALLY? That is amazing because in 2012 Tester won by 3.7% and Barack Obama won Montana by 13.5%! Now that Tester has identified himself as an obstacle to Trump's policies by voting against Trump’s Tax cuts, in a state Trump won by 21 points, SM says Tester will do THREE TIMES better than his margin in 2012? Trump won Montana by 21 points which was more than 7 points better than what Mitt Romney got in 2012. THIS adds up to a comfortable a 12 point lead for Tester? REALLY? I don’t think so.
On to the two seats SM thinks Republicans will lose; Nevada and Arizona.
In Nevada Dean Heller is reported to be down by 3 points to Congresswoman Jackie Rosen who is an exception to the “just another Democrat” label.
Besides the fact that there has been at least one poll showing Heller ahead (by 1 point) Rosen is not “just another Democrat.” She is worse.
Rosen has been caught and publicly exposed as a major liar. She claimed she ran a small business, but public records prove that is a lie and the “business” never existed.
Heller is running a devastating TV spot on this issue that will likely get him traction. Trump has not yet started fighting for Heller;but he will. That will boost Heller and get him over the top.
In Arizona at this point, there is NO Republican candidate for the open seat created by Jeff Flake’s departure. Those who are answering survey questions in Arizona are reacting to name recognition or are Republicans splitting between the two main Republican candidates. When a Republican candidate is selected this will change.
A state with the history Arizona has on border issues will not elect “just another Democrat” because part of being “just another Democrat,” will mean being “just another open border Democrat.” That won’t happen.
The next installment will cover why demographics in the states Democrats are clearly going to lose are so deadly (for Democrats) similar to those SM says Democrats are winning.