Tuesday, February 20, 2018
Sorry Larry but you’re wrong again; there is no Blue Wave coming for Democrats
By Kevin Collins
There will be no return of power for the Democrats any time soon. There is no Blue Wave coming. The numbers being ignored by Democrats and their pollsters say this very clearly.
Because the “Blue Wave” hogwash is so widespread brevity demands that only one “Democrat expert’s” foolishness be followed and debunked. Larry Sabato will do.
Almost immediately after the stunning defeat of Hillary Clinton Larry Sabato, one of the left’s trusted “experts”, had the good sense and grace to admit he was totally wrong in his “oh so confident” prediction that Clinton would easily win the election.
In his statement he said “We [pollsters] were wrong – the entire polling industry was wrong… hundreds of surveys... 90% were wrong- we were wrong about rural America…… we’ve got to get it fixed.” That was the Larry Sabato of 2016; but little has changed in the methodology used by Sabato today.
Larry’s “famous” Crystal Ball has the Democrats winning barely enough House seats to retake Congress. This causes visions of Speaker Mumbles Pelosi dancing in the minds of Democrats as they go to sleep each night. Nevertheless, let’s pour some cold water on these somnambulant donkeys and rouse them with the truth.
First an overview: The generic poll which ALWAYS favors Democrats, regardless of the political climate of the day, has totally reversed from its PUSH POLL results of a 20 point lead for Democrats just two months ago to a one point lead for Republicans. Since generic polls have consistent 4 point bias in favor of Democrats, which is recognized by both sides, it’s safe to say Republicans actually now have a five point lead.
But generic polls are merely “beauty contests” that describe what people would like to see. More often than not they are not what will actually get people to go out and vote.
For indicators of a more precise nature we have to look at enthusiasm surveys. Since there are no such surveys available yet other signs of voter excitement for one party or another must be used.
First in this category would be the IBD/TIPP Poll that tells us as a result of the tax cut bill economic optimism is at a 13 year high. This is based on the large number of companies that, as a result of Republican passed tax cuts, have either raised wages, given stock options to employees, given them bonuses or done all three.
Belief in the value of the tax cuts has risen steadily as people have come to recognize the Democrats none of whom , not a single one vote for the tax cuts, lied to them about how the Trump's tax cuts would impact their live.
Just since January 1, the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment has gone up 4.2%; its Current Economic Expectation index rose 4.7% and the Consumer Expectation index rose 3.9%. Increases of this kind have not been seen in ten years. This is very important.
Another important factor: Bill Clinton will be locked in a closet somewhere as things get worse for him and his wife.
The Democrats have no ideas; no money and third tier candidates.
More than this, because Democrats have such a thin “bench” (because they got blown out in 2010 and again in 2014), they have a core of wild unsophisticated leftists who believe the media hype about a Blue Wave and so have jammed Democrat primary ballots with 4, 6 and even more candidates that will destroy each other before they even get to face well-funded Republican incumbents.
The practical effect of these changes in public sentiment toward Republicans and away from Democrats has had a devastating effect on Mister Sabato’s “Toss-up” election list. It makes some questionable but others look silly.
It is important to keep in mind that Sabato’s prediction of a Democrat takeover of the House is very much akin to drawing to complete an inside straight.
He allowed a margin of error of just four races. His theory rests on Democrats holding all of their current seats – disregarding the huge advantage Republicans have at the state level – and Democrats taking twenty five Republican seats.
The following races are included in his mostly Republican “Toss-up” list and they are easily debunked. Remember that to be right Sabato can only miss four or less of these toss ups. For Sabato’s theory to collapse this analysis has to be right on only four races.
These are the races he calls “toss-ups” that don’t stand up in the light of scrutiny.
California 48th CD incumbent Dana Rohrabacher
While Hillary Clinton was scorching her way through California, Dana Rohrabacher was winning big and the June primary system California uses will cripple Democrat challengers as the economy gets stronger and stronger even in California.
No Clinton on the ballot will hurt Democrats as well. Trump voters turned out for Trump’s ideas not as part of a cult of personality that has already been tarnished with the Democrats muzzling Bill Clinton. Trump voters will came out then and will do so again as there is no erosion in his base. Republican hold.
California 25th CD Republican incumbent Steve Knight
Knight has already beaten his likely Democrat challenger by 6 points which is big for a Republican in California. And as with the 48th CD, the June primary system California uses will cripple Democrat challengers as the economy gets stronger and stronger even in California. No Clinton on the ballot will hurt Democrats as well. Republican hold.
Florida 26th CD Republican incumbent Carlos Curbelo
Curbelo has already beaten the likely Democrat challenger but Florida’s late August primary system will cripple the eventual Democrat candidate; and again as the economy gets stronger and stronger things will get tougher and tougher for Democrats. Republican hold.
Minnesota 8th CD Democrat incumbent Rick Nolan
Nolen won by 1 point in a district that was won by President Trump by 15 points and this district has recorded the third biggest shift toward Republicans in the nation. Republican pick up.
New York 19th CD Republican incumbent John Faso
In 2016 Faso beat the strongest Democrat candidate with the most money and most big name endorsements by 9 points. He even outpaced Trump who won the district by 7 points. Faso avoids Democrat attacks by voting no on Tax cuts. Republican hold.
New York 22nd CD Republican incumbent Claudia Tenney
Tenney won by 5 points in a three-way race that included a third- party candidate who drew 15 points. If Tenney merely splits this group, she wins big. Absent this candidate and given the benefits to her district from the Tax cuts makes this a Republican hold.
Michigan 11th CD Republican incumbent Dave Trott
Trott is not running for reelection.
But, Trott won his reelection by 53/40 in a district won by Trump by 4 points which says Blue Collar Democrats voted for him and took a chance on Trump. The tax cuts were virtually tailored to the state of Michigan. Whomever the Republicans run will have an advantage. Republican hold.
Virginia 10th Republican incumbent Barbara Comstock
Comstock won reelection by 6 points while Hillary Clinton was winning the district by 10 points, she has a huge war chest and no clear Democrat challenger and of course the economy is growing and growing. Republican hold.
Final point regarding how thin the chances of a Democrat take over of the House are: Ballotpedia, a left leaning website, is tracking only 23 races. To take the House back the Democrats would have to win all 23 races plus 2 additional seats.
If I am right about just half of these assessments Larry’s prediction of a Democrat House in January 2019 is over; but I’m not right on half of them I’m right on all of them.
Will Republicans lose seats- maybe but not enough to change things even if they do.