Monday, January 8, 2018

Here is what’s holding back China’s plans for world domination

The following article appeared in the American Thinker on January 1st

There is no doubt that China wants to subjugate Asia, echoing Japan's role during World War II.  For those who think China's economy might overtake the United States economy, and thus make China a more formidable adversary, this article aims to provide detail on China's main constraint in that ambition: that its domestic coal production is near its peak and will then go into long-term decline.

Even if China can keep its energy supply constant with an accelerated expansion of its nuclear power sector, the cost of producing coal from deeper mines will mean that the costs of industrial production will rise due to higher feedstock costs.  One of the reasons that China produces the world's cheapest solar panels, for example, is because it has some of the world's cheapest coal-fired power.  German solar panel-producers are hobbled by that country's energiewende, which, translated from the German, means the miracle required to replace coal and nuclear power with sunbeams and breezes and still have a functioning economy.
Figure 1: The United States and China: Primary Energy Consumption by fuel in 2016. 

To put China's situation in perspective, Figure 1 shows the contributions to total energy supply in China and the United States in 2016 expressed in millions of tonnes of oil equivalent (data from the 2017 BP Statistical Review of World Energy). [Editor's note: One tonne, or metric ton, is equal to about 1.102 U.S. tons.]  Coal absolutely dominates China's energy supply.  This would be good for China if its coal were going to last a long time.  But China is depleting is coal endowment rapidly.

The salad days of China's economic growth are over.  In fact, the Chinese will have to paddle harder, year after year, to stop economic contraction

(The article continues HERE)

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