Wednesday, November 2, 2016
The word is ENTHUSIASM: Trump supporters have it, Clinton supporters don’t have it
By Kevin “Coach” Collins
A certain piece of information in the Washington Post/ABC News poll bombshell that hit Hillary Clinton was far more devastating than the news that she had finally fallen behind Donald Trump in its daily survey of voting preferences of likely voters.
Embedded within the Wapo’s report of its findings was the very serious news that Trump supporters are 8 points more enthusiastic to vote than Clinton supporters are.
Nobody wins an election for president when the other team has an enthusiasm lead like that – PERIOD.
This is unarguably the death knell for Clinton’s staggering campaign to be the first president to be under criminal investigation from day one.
On the state level, this enthusiasm malaise among Clinton supporters is clearly visible as well, especially among voting blocs that Clinton desperately needs to do well with.
A New York Times report puts her problem in clear and stark terms when it states, “Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton just can’t seem to get black voters or young voters to the polls for early voting.”
“Black voters are turning out in far fewer numbers than they did in 2012. The states of Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio all experienced severe drops in early voting numbers from black voters. Marc Caputo of Politico also notes a significant difference in the key, swing state of Florida.”
It should be noted that Black voting in the Democrat primaries was down an average of about 37% in Ohio, North Carolina and Florida so none of this is surprising.
The Times story continues, “Voters under the age of 30 are also turning up in smaller numbers than in previous elections. Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio saw the most drastic decreases among younger voters, but other key states like Virginia, Nevada and Michigan also experienced severe drops in voter turnout.”
It is simply not reasonable to think that these states are the only ones in which young and Black voters are exhibiting a serve lack of enthusiasm for voting.
The Times story goes on to say, “Both young and black voters are key demographics that Clinton carries significantly in polls, indicating low turnout with these key groups may harm Clinton in November.
“It should be noted that the numbers are based on decreasing percentages with respect to the overall voting population. More and more Americans are voting early than ever before. Only 10 percent of voters cast an early ballot in 1996, compared to 31 percent of all voters in the 2014 “surge” election.”
Since 1952, lower turnout in presidential years is almost a guarantee of a Republican victory. Of the ten Republican victories over this span, nine have come with an average voter participation rate lower than the overall average which is only 52.53%.
During his two victories George W. Bush won with turnouts that were 2 ½% lower than the average of the last four elections.