Wednesday, October 5, 2016

WaPo poll shows young voter lack of enthusiasm for Clinton is the stuff of nightmares

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

Hillary Clinton’s inability to attract White voters is very bad; yet her inability to excite 18 to 29 year old voters is the stuff of nightmares.
With little more than a month until Election Day it is becoming clear that the media are juggling their poll results as hard as they can to help their newsroom goddess; but people just don’t like Hillary Clinton.

A recent Washington Post/ABC NEWS survey shows Donald Trump is ahead by a staggering 65/25 with White men and just down 44/46 with White women. Combined with at least a 72% White turnout, (but likely 74% or more) it shows a vast lack of enthusiasm among Whites for Clinton. Trump’s voters are clearly more enthused about voting for him than Clinton’s supporters are about her.    

When factored even for the 2012 turn out, this spread among White voters results in a ratio of 1.46 White votes for Trump for every 1.0 White vote Clinton receives from approximately 3 of 4 voters. Enthusiasm is the cause of this 58/42 edge.

The Washington Post has recognized the value of its own survey as it relates to states that are close or tied between the candidates. This is probably why their political column has moved Pennsylvania to a Toss-up, making it the first time this has happened. They also designate Ohio as a Toss-up.

Yet this is curious since it has become evident that Ohio is not going to vote for Hillary Clinton. Indeed the New York Times and Reuters, two of Clinton’s biggest cheerleaders, have started saying that Ohio is not a “must win state” for Clinton.

Adding to the evidence that Clinton has already lost Ohio is another WaPo article posted Monday. This one tells of a reporter who followed a Clinton door to door canvasser and was stunned at how poorly the young man’s day went.

In a whole, four square block area near The Ohio State University, the canvasser knocked on many doors, but was not able to sign up a single new voter or get anyone to fill out a pledge to vote for Clinton. To her credit, the reporter did quote one student who said, “I’m all in for Donald Trump, man.”    

In fact the piece quite honestly and probably unwittingly explained why Clinton is not only finished in Ohio, but likely in the election as a whole. The reporter cited an earlier WaPo poll showing Clinton leading by just 2 points with voters between 18 and 29 years of age.  In 2012, Barack Obama won that group by 23 points.

In 2012, 75% of these young voters expressed an interest in voting before the election and those who did vote made up 19 percent of the electorate. Today, just 41% of these young voters say they plan to vote. If these numbers actually appear in the final tallies, instead of being 19% and providing Obama with the margin that re-elected him, these young voters will be about 8% of the electorate and split evenly.

In 2012, these young people were 19% of the electorate and they gave 60% of their vote to Barack Obama which was eventually 11.4% of his total vote.

The WaPo article didn’t say what the split was, just that Clinton was ahead by 2 points. Giving Clinton the most favorable interpretation of that data, let’s use a 51/49 split for her and completely shut out third Party candidates. That gives her 4.08% of her total vote, a fall off from Obama’s numbers of 7.32 percentage points.

She simply will not be able to withstand that kind of a hit.    

By any measure, this is the stuff of nightmares for Hillary Clinton.  

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