Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Trump’s numbers off 1.3 in Dornsife La Times poll; this could be the “Bradley Effect”

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

Donald Trump has lost his lead in the Dornsife La Times. He is now down .4% after a big fall.    

What is the cause? “Let’s go to the video tape!” as a New York area sports reporter used to say.

This is day four of Dornsife’s seven day rolling poll and was to be expected. The Trump tape took effect yesterday and will be WORSE tomorrow. When the results of the second debate and the new email drops take hold tomorrow and Friday there should be an improvement.

There may also be some "Bradley effect" here as well. The "Wilder Factor" is a phenomenon in polling where people will tell pollsters something other than what they really think because they are embarrassed to say the truth even to a complete stranger. Some years ago in the Tom Bradley case he was winning in pre-election polls in the California governor’s race but lost. It turned out that people SAID they would vote for him indicating that Bradley being Black made no difference; but it did.

So it is possible that some voters, especially women, told Dornsife they were against Trump because they think that is how they are supposed to think.

The Bradley effect was also seen in every ballot question on the issue of “Gay Marriage.” Before the actual vote, there were very few polls that that showed “Gay Marriage” had no chance of passing. In fact some – not many, but some--showed a within the margin of error tie between Yes or No. Nevertheless, with one exception, not a single one prevailed.

“In the 1989 race for Mayor of New York, a poll conducted just over a week before the election showed black candidate David Dinkins holding an 18-point lead over white candidate Rudy Giuliani. [Dinkins was running to be the first Black mayor of New York City]. Four days before the election, a new poll showed that lead to have shrunk, but still standing at 14 points. On the day of the election, Dinkins prevailed by only two points.”

Don’t panic over this slippage because it has a definite, identifiable cause. 

Follow Coach on twitter at KcoachcCoach and check out Coach’s latest book The Dirty Locked Away History of the Democrat Party at available in Ebook and hard copy.
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