Tuesday, October 11, 2016

New Republicans are helping to even the field in several swing states

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

According to a survey by the AP, Republicans have gained in the race to have the most registered voters in Arizona, Iowa, Florida and North Carolina.

Given the well-deserved 11% approval rating Congress has, common sense says these voters are excited about voting for Donald Trump and not their local Republican Congressional Representative.   

Newly registered voters are believed to have pulled Republicans to competitive positions in both Colorado and Nevada.

In Arizona, the big registration gains have been among Independents, but Republicans still hold a 159,000 registered voter edge. The caution from the AP on Arizona is the fast growing number of registered Independent voters. Apparently the AP has disallowed the likely fact that the growth in Arizona’s Independents who now number 1.4 million, is being fueled by disgusted Republicans wanting to distance themselves from the RNC.    

Iowa is another state where an effective ground operation has kept Republicans ahead of Democrats among registered voters.  

There are about 20,000 felons who are mostly Blacks that are not eligible to vote by law.

In Florida, since 2012, the Democrats’ voter registration advantage has fallen 48% from 535,000 to 258,000.  As compared to Democrat registration, this shift places Republicans just under 300,000 less. The Republican registration gains have been made among White voters who are far more enthusiastic about voting for Trump than for Hillary Clinton.

The AP attributes a portion of the improvement in Republican registration to those who have switched from Democrat.  This is clearly a sign of voter enthusiasm for Trump. Since January, 121,000 new registrants have been Hispanic and their choice has been 42 percent Democrat; 41 percent are "no party," and 16 percent registered as Republicans.   A new Emerson poll shows Trump getting 36% of Hispanic votes in Florida.  

Democrats hold a clear registration advantage in North Carolina, but the gap has narrowed.

Recent elections have signaled that North Carolina, one of the last old south states to flip to a reliable Republican voting state, likely clings to the tradition of registering Democrat and voting Republican. In spite of Democrats holding a strong 645,000 voter registration edge, even the hapless Mitt Romney was able to win in the Tar Heel State which saw the Democrats’ edge fall 27% since 2012.   

Given the strong, 11 point enthusiasm advantage of Trump supporters over Clinton supporters, these states look like pluses for Donald Trump.

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