Saturday, October 15, 2016

More enthusiasm gap problems for Hillary Clinton

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

A discussion of the enthusiasm among Donald Trump’s supporters versus that among Hillary Clinton’s supporters can be found here.  (1) 

It is not clear which poll these people are commenting on, but everything they admit and assert is easily refuted.

Like all such treatments of enthusiasm (which is the third rail of political reporting) the piece starts with a tricky presentation of the enthusiasm on both sides. It says, “The lack of enthusiasm spikes among Clinton supporters. A majority of Clinton's supporters say they're less excited about voting this year than usual (55%) while most of Trump's backers say they're more excited this time around (56%).”

This is a clever way to hide the true enthusiasm gap. Saying 55% less enthusiastic for Hillary Clinton means 45% are enthusiastic to vote for her. Then look at the comment about Trump supporters’ enthusiasm; that being 56% are excited to vote for Trump. That means 44% are less enthusiastic.

This is more confirmation that the true enthusiasm gap between those supporting Trump and those supporting Clinton is a steady and recurring 11%.

Again we see a good sign for Trump in that just 46% of voters overall are enthusiastic about voting. Clearly the larger portion of this number comes from Trump supporters.    

“In the new poll, 46% say they are extremely or very enthusiastic, compared with 57% at this point in 2012, 60% in early September of 2008 and 64% in September 2004.”

While this “46% are enthusiastic to vote” is suspect, in view of empirical evidence all over, a lower turnout would favor Trump.

“Further, nearly half of voters say they are less enthusiastic about voting in this election than they have been in previous years, while just 42% say they're more excited about this year's contest. Although this question hasn't been asked in every presidential election year, in CNN/ORC and CNN/USA Today/Gallup results dating back to 2000, this poll marks the first time that a significantly larger share of voters say they are less enthusiastic about this year's election.”  

This is a comparison of past voting habits to today’s circumstances. It does not account for first time voters or first time in a long time voters who may have been treated as never voters.

“That could be contributing to Trump's slim advantage among likely voters. Among the broader pool of registered voters, Clinton edges Trump by 3 points. The shift among these voters since the convention is largely due to a rebound in Trump's numbers rather than a slide in Clinton's. He's gone from 37% support then to 41% among registered voters now.”

Good forward progress for Trump.

“Also helping Trump is the breakdown in trust where Trump holds an edge over Clinton as more trusted to handle two of voters' top four issues - the economy (56% trust Trump vs. 41% Clinton) and terrorism (51% Trump to 45% Clinton).Clinton holds a solid edge on foreign policy (56% trust her to Trump's 40%), and the public is divided over the fourth issue in the bunch, immigration.” 

Given the damaging material in the continually released Wikileaks drops, it is hard to see how Clinton could expand upon or even maintain her leads in Foreign policy and/or immigration.  

“On that, 49% favor Clinton's approach, 47% Trump's. At Trump's recent campaign appearances, he has argued that he would do more to improve life for racial and ethnic minorities, but voters seem to disagree, 58% say Clinton is better on that score vs. 36% who choose Trump, and among non-whites, 86% choose Clinton to just 12% who think Trump would better improve their lives”

Again the Wikileaks drops severely damage Clinton’s claims to be better with minorities.

While even 12% is a good number for Trump with “minorities” there is ample evidence that Trump’s support among Blacks is substantially higher, maybe even the 24% found in a new Rasmussen poll.

“However, when it comes to honesty and trustworthiness, there is no contest: Trump has his largest edge of the campaign as the more honest and trustworthy of the two major candidates (50% say he is more honest and trustworthy vs. just 35% choosing Clinton) and as the stronger leader, 50% to 42%. Clinton continues to be seen as holding the better temperament to serve effectively as president (56% to 36%) and better able to handle the responsibilities of commander in chief (50% to 45%).

“On honesty, Clinton's backers express greater skepticism about their candidate than do Trump's supporters. When asked which candidate is more honest and trustworthy, 94% of Trump's backers say he is, while just 70% of those behind Clinton choose her, with 11% saying Trump is more trustworthy and 17% saying neither of them are. And when voters were asked to name the one issue that would be most important to their vote for president, 5% named honesty or trustworthiness as their top choice, ranking it on par with foreign policy and jobs.”

The Wikileaks drops will turn all of these items against Hillary Clinton. 

Follow Coach on twitter at KcoachcCoach and check out Coach’s latest book The Dirty Locked Away History of the Democrat Party at available in Ebook and hard copy.
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1 comment:

  1. Potential contributor to an enthusiasm gap for D's in Philly: