Tuesday, October 4, 2016
Hillary’s under-performance compared to Obama’s margins of victory shows lack of enthusiasm for her
By Kevin “Coach” Collins
This is not to say Hillary Clinton will lose the states listed below; that remains to be seen. Nevertheless, the following numbers are significant as an indication of the lack of enthusiasm for Clinton’s campaign. She has spent $100 million dollars and can’t get people charged up to vote for her.
This chart is a comparison of where she is in current polls and what Barack Obama won by in each of these 23 states in 2012. She is under-performing in all states but Colorado, Maryland and California.
Hillary Clinton’s current poll average: Obama margin and Clinton’s short fall Washington State +11.7 14 under 2.7
California +22.2 19 over + 3.2 ****
New York +17.2 27 under 9.8
Vermont +31.3 36 under 4.7
Virginia +5.4 3 under 2.4
Rhode Island +12.9 27 under 14.1
Massachusetts+ 20.3 23 under 2.7
Washington D C. +28.5 82 under 53.5
Illinois +14 16 under 2
Maryland + 27 23.5 under +3.5 ****
Michigan +4.3 9 under 4.7
Minnesota +6.8 8 under 1.2
Pennsylvania +4.0 5 under 1
Connecticut +9.2 18 under 8.8
New Jersey +9.6 17 under 7.4
Delaware +12.7 19 under 12.7
North Carolina +.4 3 under 2.6
Colorado +2.0 4 over +2 *****
New Mexico +6.7 10 under 3.3
Nevada -.2 6 under 5.8
Hawaii +18.8 43 under 24.2
New Hampshire +5.4 6 under .6
Iowa -1.9 6 under 7.9
There are six states where Clinton is under-performing by 7 points or more. Because they are atypical, The District of Columbia and Hawaii have been excluded although both showed a remarkable short fall in Clinton’s current poll performance compared to the margin of victory enjoyed by Obama in 2012.
Clinton’s current under-performance average in those six states is 10.1%.
This is not to say that Clinton may not ultimately win these states, but a short fall of this size cannot be explained as anything but an indication of a lack of excitement and enthusiasm about Clinton’s campaign. Overall Clinton is under performing in 20 of the 23 states she is winning.
As compared to the margin Obama won them in 2012 Clinton is over-performing in just three states by an average of 2.9 points. Maryland +3.5 and California at + 3.2, she will win easily while the other is battleground state Colorado + 2 compared to Obama’s margin of victory.
The best explanation of these numbers has to be a lack of enthusiasm among Clinton’s supporters and her voters which are not necessarily the same people.
RCP has actually added a few state to push her to 201. I have not factored them in as I have no faith that these are not the result of manipulated polls.
The latest Wapo/ABC survey has the felon + 2 but when you look at the internals showing Trump getting 65% of White men and 44% of White women getting just 10% of Blacks; 30% of Hispanics and 25 of the remaining 5% Asians and "others" ALL down from Romney except White vote; Trump is at 52.58% using 2012 turnout numbers which we know will not be the case as Trump's 11% enthusiasm edge will push the White vote up to 74% and he will get more than 10% of the Black vote.
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