Thursday, September 8, 2016

The practical effect of Trump getting 20% of the Black vote



By Kevin “Coach” Collins

No one on either side could have imagined the level of support Donald Trump has gotten from Black voters. Because they are mostly Democrats their defection to Trump in this zero sum game is extremely significant.

Black support for Trump first surfaced a year ago when a SurveyUSA national poll reported that Trump was getting 25% of the Black vote. After the laughter died down, the pollsters didn’t even bother with this claim because they reasoned it was a waste of time and money since Trump would not get the Republican nomination anyway. 

As the Republican primaries went along and it became apparent that Trump was indeed going to be the Republican nominee, pollsters still refused to ask Blacks for whom they would vote because they KNEW Blacks would vote 95% Democrat anyway.  Now that this has proved to be wrong, the polling industry has been thrown upside down.

Pollsters ignore the fact that even the bogus numbers they report--say 5% support for Trump--means a loss for Democrats that must be made up elsewhere. That becomes a problem because Whites, especially White men, will not support Hillary Clinton.  So we can understand why it is that anyone who tries to argue that Trump is getting 20% of the Black vote must be attacked, branded as crazy and shut down.

Since that 20% is almost ALL Democrats the result is a big problem for Clinton. Since 2000, Black voters have made up an average of 11% of the total electorate and 90% of them have voted Democrat. If Clinton loses 20% of these voters her vote falls to 8.8% of the electorate supplied by Blacks which is a 2.2% reduction for her and a 2.2% increase for Trump.

Since 2000, the average popular vote for Democrat candidates has been 58 million. That means the 2.2% translates into 1,276,000 votes for Trump, a number that a Republican would not ordinarily receive.  During this period the average Republican received just 8% of the Black vote, so this translates into 765,600 new votes for Trump; and 765,000 lost votes for Clinton.      

Over the same period the average Republican vote for a Democrat was 8% and the average Democrat vote for a Republican was 9.75%. Given the unrest on the Republican side, these numbers should balance out to a wash at worst.   


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