Friday, September 16, 2016
Polling is being made “complicated” to camouflage the lie
By Kevin “Coach” Collins
Ockham’s razor is a problem solving formula the holds, “Among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected.” This simple principle is very often pushed aside by self-important, “deep thinkers” who make a living making things seem complicated and therefore insoluble except for those with “expert” knowledge.
The famous Danish writer Hans Christian Andersen showed us the value of Ockham’s razor in his short story; “The Emperor's New Clothes." In this tale two weavers promise their emperor “a new suit of clothes that is invisible to those who are unfit for their positions, stupid, or incompetent.” When the Emperor walks through the streets in his “new clothes,” no one dares say that they don't see any clothes until a child says, "But he isn't wearing anything at all!"
Today’s version of The Emperor’s New Clothes involves the results of polls we have been fed this election cycle.
Those of us who insist that what they are giving us is transparently wrong are treated as “unfit for their positions, stupid, or incompetent,” just like the child who was not fooled in Andersen’s story.
The Ockham’s Razor of polling results is this: There are only four groups of voters: Whites, Hispanics, Blacks and a sprinkling of Asians. It makes no difference what White women or White men do because it is the aggregate of White voters that matters. If we use the percentage of Whites who made up the electorate in 2012-which was 71%-we have accounted for a huge portion of the turnout.
Since the pollsters like to select which features of the 2012 turnout they want to use, we can do the same, except that Trump will bring out at least 2% more Whites. If he does and gets 63% of them he has captured 46.99% of the vote.
In 2012, Hispanics were 10% of the electorate; Trump is getting at least 30% of this bloc so that adds another 3% to his column meaning he is then at 49.99. Among Blacks who were 13% of the 2012 turnout Trump is now getting 20% meaning he gets another 2.6% of the votes. That gives him a total of 52.59%.
Telling us that Trump is having trouble with the White, left handed, red haired men’s group or the White, six toed female electorate means nothing; all of those sub-groups is covered by the 37% of Whites he doesn’t get.
Using the 2012 turnout model of Black voters, Hillary Clinton is reportedly getting no more than 87%. If that is what she winds up with she’ll have 11.31%. Added to her 24.09% of Whites--provided she can do almost as well as Barack Obama did with Whites—she’ll get to 35.4%. If she gets 70% of the Hispanic vote, her total goes to 42.4%. Now we turn to the Asian vote which is around 3%. If Trump gets 1/3 of this group he brings in 53.59% to Clinton’s 44.4%. This accounts for 97.99% of the electorate leaving 2.01% for the minor Parties.
The subgroups pollsters report are meaningless. It seems they are not wearing any clothes.
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