Tuesday, September 27, 2016
Media won’t tell you this but Trump is at or near the MOE for nine states lost by Romney
By Kevin “Coach” Collins
By now, except in the Hillary Clinton propaganda mills, it is pretty well established that Donald Trump is going to get at least 20% of the Black vote while Clinton can’t break 75% with African Americans. This is a full 15 points below the bare minimum she needs to have a chance to win in November. Nevertheless, the crafty Goebbelsesque media presents this and other “horse races” within this election as one requiring Trump to get 51% or be defeated.
This same twisting of the truth would produce a headline saying, “Trump down in 8 of 9 important states,” which would be factually correct but of little importance to anyone interested in the actual truth.
The truth is there are nine states worth 102 Electoral College Votes (ECV) that Mitt Romney lost where Trump is either already winning, within or close to the margin of error.
An honest headline would be, “In states where Obama won by an average of 15 points Trump is winning, at/near MOE.” Here’s why this is true.
A series of polls that, for obvious reasons, have not received much coverage, shows that Trump is closing in on traditional blue states and is surprisingly close to taking over in the race for their Electoral College Votes.
In Pennsylvania Trump is -3 Obama won by 5; Pennsylvania is worth 20 ECVs.
In Minnesota Trump is -6; Obama won by 8; Minnesota is worth 10 ECVs.
In Illinois Trump is – 6; Obama won by 16; Illinois is worth 20 ECVs.
In New Jersey Trump is -3; Obama won by 18; New Jersey is worth 14 ECVs.
In Rhode Island Trump is – 3; Obama won Rhode Island by 27; Rhode Island is worth 4 ECVs
New Jersey and Rhode Island polling stats are shown in the same link:
In Wisconsin Trump is -2 Obama won by 7; Wisconsin is worth 10 ECVs.
Trump up 5 in New Mexico; Obama won by 10; New Mexico is worth 5 EVCs.
In Michigan Trump -3 Obama won by 9; Michigan is worth 16 ECVs.
In a rather odd announcement, Reuters says they have a high degree of confidence that Trump will win deep blue Vermont. Reuters did not provide any numbers but commented that because Vermont is 96% White even the liberal tendencies of state voters would not save Clinton. This can only mean that Reuters knows that Clinton’s support among Whites is hovering around 30%.
Obama won Vermont by 36; Vermont is worth 3 ECVs
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