Sunday, September 25, 2016

Looking at the polls: What we can draw from where Trump is positioned?

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

New Quinnipiac polls offer encouraging data for Donald Trump and a sagging future for Hillary Clinton.

The Q-poll shows Clinton leading in Colorado 44/42, and in Virginia 45/39. It shows Trump leading 47/40 in Georgia and 44/37 in Iowa.  

In Colorado, where Obama won by 5 points in 2012, Clinton’s 8 point lead on August 17 has dissipated to 2 points which is within the 3.9% MOE. Moreover, Colorado is 87% White which is just at the beginning of certain trouble for Clinton since she is polling so poorly with Whites that Reuters has ALREADY all but called Vermont for Trump based on the state’s 96% White population.  Reuters considers the percentage of White support Clinton has to be so significantly low that it casts aside a 21 point lead for her found in an Emerson College poll done earlier this month.

It is worth noting that Reuters avoided mentioning how anemic Clinton’s numbers are with Whites; but a good guess would be she has around 32% support which would represent a record low.  Logically, if she even had the 39% or something close to it that Barack Obama had in 2012, Reuters would not have set the chances of Republican Trump winning in very Democrat Vermont at 95%.  In his crushing defeat in 1984, even Walter Mondale got 34% of the White vote.

In Virginia, the Q-poll has Clinton leading by 6 points where Obama won in 2012 by 4 points. Giving Clinton a generous 35% support level from Whites if they are the same 70% of the electorate she gets 24.5% of the vote. It is no longer a disputed fact that 20% of Blacks are supporting Trump, and Clinton is getting just 75% of the Black vote. That gives her another 15 points adding up to 39.5%. 

It is also well established that Trump is getting 30% of the Hispanic vote so let’s give her 70%. Those numbers give her another 3.5 points and Trump another 1.5 points.  Virginia has a 3% Asian voter population. If Clinton gets 2 of those points she finishes with 45%.

Trump’s 42 points with Whites, 4 points with Blacks, 1.5 points with Hispanics and 1 point with Asians mean he finishes with 48.5%. The minor candidates will share about 3.5% - don’t believe Gary Johnson can get more than 2 points.  

In Iowa, where Obama won by 6 points and was never in trouble, Clinton is losing by 7 points; this is a 13 point difference from the 2012 election. This speaks to the pollsters’ whispers about the power of the White vote. 

In Georgia where Republican Mitt Romney won by 7 points in 2012, Clinton is stalled at a seven point disadvantage.

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1 comment:

  1. The MSM obsessively harp on the fact that college educated voters give a healthy margin to Hillary. But I never hear anything that translates that margin into real votes based on demographics.

    I think that the majority of voters in the U.S. are not college educated, but are the famous Joe Six-Pack voters that we don't hear much about these days. To borrow an image from Pat Buchanan, I see these Joe Six-Packs riding to the sound of the guns, bringing their welding torches and pitchforks with them.