Friday, September 9, 2016
Franklin Pierce College poll holds some very good news for Trump and very bad news for Clinton
By Kevin “Coach” Collins
A just released Franklin Pierce College (FPC) national poll shows Hilary Clinton with a 43.7 /41.4 lead over Donald Trump. That is the end of the good news in this poll for Clinton. The rest runs from good to very good for Trump.
Those who cling to the notion that since the polls were right in 2012 when they predicted Mitt Romney’s defeat, they MUST be right today whether we want to believe them or not. The differences in this country; in the candidates and the poll mythologies from four years ago are enormous.
Trump is not a pansy afraid to fight for his election; Clinton is a much more flawed candidate in terms of hits that can really stick; Clinton is not Black, and the number of voters identifying as independents is no longer 29% but an eye-popping 42% as per a Gallup survey completed in January.
What these factors mean is that it is foolish to cling to the belief that nothing has changed so therefore Trump should conduct his campaign along the same losing lines that Romney did.
This FPC poll shows Hillary Clinton’s support among Black voters is in free fall. Where the average Black voter support for Democrat candidates over the last four cycles is 90%, this new survey found just 73% of African Americans planning to vote for her. Worse still 19.1% (matching the 20% number that makes Democrats tremble) is here again. Moreover there are another 5% of Blacks “undecided” which almost certainly means they are voting for Trump and don’t want to say so.
Among Hispanics, Trump is getting 36.2% which is already ahead of the 34.25% average Republicans got during the same period and better than what George Bush got in his 2000 victory.
What is also of very good news for Trump is that to get Clinton’s slim margin over him FPC used numbers that went from skewed to badly skewed. It used 23.5% Independents a group widely recognized to favor Trump, instead of the 29% of Independents who voted in 2012 or the 42% that identified as independents in a Gallup survey completed in January.
Using Gallup’s findings, of Party identification among 18,000 respondents, FPC also under polled Democrats and Republicans at about the same rate.
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