Friday, August 12, 2016
Why these polls are different from the ones in 2008 and 2012
By Kevin “Coach” Collins
Here are the differences between polls of 2016 and previous polls.
Donald Trump is not like Mitt Romney or John McCain; Trump’s candidacy is THE RESULT of Romney and McCain. The level of hatred for Hillary Clinton among Trump supporters is large enough to give pause to Democrats. They have never seen this much vitriol for one of their candidates. In neither 2008 nor 2012 was there such a massive “movement” of people who hate what is happening to their country.
There were no Email leaks showing the DNC working in collusion with CBS and NBC to manipulate the polls. There were no flat out admissions from the New York Times that they are in fact lying to support Clinton.
So why are the polls wrong?
Above all of these factors is the crash in the percentage of respondents to polls compared with the number of people contacted. Pew conducted an extensive examination of the rates of reply to pollsters over the past several years. Pew found that, just in the period of 2012 to 2014, the response rate fell 23 points from 31% to 8 percent. Moreover, at 31% response Pew found a 24% error rate! There is no reason to believe that the rate of response has grown since 2014.
In short, people know the reporting is faked and don’t want anything to do with it.
For example in a new ABC poll Clinton is winning Black voters 92/2 which means she is doing better than Obama did. To put that in prospective a new poll in North Carolina has Trump getting 32% of the likely Black vote in that state. The fact that North Carolina’s Black voter participation in the Democrat primary was off 40% makes this number very believable.
To further cloud the issue; in neither of the two previous presidential elections did the Republican candidate have such a large edge in social media; and certainly the rallies Clinton is holding are miniscule compared to the numbers Trump enjoys.
A June 2015, New York Times article summed up the state of polling by saying, “In short, polls and pollsters are going to be less reliable. We may not even know when we’re off base. What this means for 2016 is anybody’s guess.”
Follow Coach on twitter at KcoachcCoach and check out Coach’s latest book The Dirty Locked Away History of the Democrat Party at amazon.com available in Ebook and hard copy.
Click on this Amazon link