Thursday, August 18, 2016
Trump’s promises and Hillary’s poor record are having an effect on her New York State polling
By Kevin “Coach” Collins
Donald Trump is a very successful businessman. He knows how to generate jobs and prosperity for those he employs. Clearly he is the person we want to guide our economy in the future. Trump has a record of success.
Hillary Clinton has a record of economic failure and lies. Her tenure as a New York State United States Senator is dismal. In 2000 when Clinton was running for Senate she made a fake “listening tour” of upstate New York a depressed area that has seen more than its share of decay and decline over the past thirty years. During this well-scripted trip from Westchester County just above New York City to Erie County where Buffalo is, she promised her “listeners” at least 200,000 new jobs to fix the problems of the region.
Now she is saying her plans for America will lead to 640,000 new jobs throughout New York State. This is a lie, of course, that is a classic Clinton double down on a fundamental lie. Part of this latest, New York State lie holds that a President Trump will cause New York State to lose 209,000 (doesn’t the odd number just impress the heck out of you?).
The people of New York State allowed themselves to twice be fooled by Hillary Clinton but maybe not this time around. A mid-July Quinnipiac Poll found Clinton leading by 12 points in New York State – keep that in mind when you read about polls that have her leading by more than 12 points nationally. That would mean she isn’t doing as well in the rest of the country than she is in New York State. It is worth noting that in 2008 and 2012 Barack Obama won by 26 points.
In the breakdown of regions in this Q-poll it shows that Trump is winning 48/36 in upstate New York, which is where he needs to be, but he is also 1 point ahead in the suburbs where both John McCain and Mitt Romney were crushed.
In upstate New York Trump is up by 12 points where both McCain and Romney did only well enough to avoid going under 35% overall.
Trump is losing 63-20 in New York City. This is actually a very good sign for a number of reasons. In 2008 Obama did 74% in the City and in 2012 he got 77% meaning Clinton is a big jump below what must be expected in NYC. Because only 10% of the city is registered as Republican, Trump’s 20% is a good sign. This suggests Trump is in fact getting Democrat – probably minority votes. Moreover if we are to believe that minor Parties account for 10 of the missing 17 points of voters, we see further suggestion that in New York City there are 7 points to be picked up. If Trump picks up 4 of them and gets to 24% versus her 63% in New York City he is in a good position to win the state.
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