Wednesday, August 3, 2016

Trump train seats filling with White male, non-college graduates

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

The truth of this election cycle is that the surest way for Donald Trump to get to the White House and save America is with massive support from White voters; and at this point he is getting that support.

A recent Washington Post ABC News survey found this to be true.  Regardless of whether the raw number of voters goes up or down--which would be a big plus for Trump--Whites will make up at least 72% of the electorate, as they did in 2012.  If the percentage goes up to say 74% Trump will win in a blowout. If the number of Whites voting goes up, while the overall number of voters goes down or even stays the same, Trump will have a very big night.

These things said, this poll holds very good news for Trump. Currently Trump is getting 65% of White, non-college degreed voters--that is 4 points higher than Mitt Romney got. While it is true he gets 10 points less than Romney got among White college grads, this is a much smaller group.

White non-college grads hold exceptionally negative views of Hillary Clinton with 73% unfavorable. This is 16 points higher than the unfavorable rating for Barack Obama in 2012. Conversely almost 60% of this group holds a positive view of Trump which is 9 points higher than the group’s view of Romney.

With a popular vote difference of less than 5 million between Obama and Romney in 2012, the following data items take on increasing importance as we come closer to Election Day.    

Census records show this about these important states:  

Pennsylvania 82% White 80.5% non- college;  

Michigan 79% White 81% non-college;

Iowa 92% White 82.5% non-college;

Washington 80% White 78% non-college;

Oregon 87% White 80% non-college;

Ohio 77% White 78% non-college;

Virginia 70% White 76% non-college;

Florida 77% White 80.5 non-college;

Colorado 87% White 76% non-college;

North Carolina 71% White 78% non-college;

New Hampshire 93% White 79% non-college; and

Missouri 83% White 80.5% non-college.

It is instructive to note that in New Hampshire and Missouri, two states with among the highest raw number combination of White population and non-college graduates, Trump already holds a substantial lead. He is up 9 points in New Hampshire and 10 points in Missouri.

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