Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Republicans are enabling pollsters to lie and say Clinton is leading Trump



By Kevin “Coach” Collins

It’s easy to be critical of pollsters. I have been rather critical of them myself. Nevertheless, good and worthy criticism must be backed up with hard facts. Those of us who have been closely engaged in this current campaign share a sense that what we see and hear in our everyday life is not being reflected in poll results. “They just don’t square up with what I’m seeing” is a typical thought we share.

The answer to the difference between what we see and what we read from pollsters can be laid squarely at the feet of the “I’m so conservative I’d rather see Hillary Clinton in the White House than Donald Trump” crowd.  These people are foolishly playing with the life of our country and placing us in physical, financial and civil danger for decades to come merely to satisfy their own egos.

The most recent Rasmussen Report survey results make this point. While Trump holds a thin 2 point edge which places Clinton in a statistical tie, he is doing so with just 73% of Republicans backing him. This is 16.25% less than the average Republican support for Republican candidates over the last four elections.

While it is true Clinton is underperforming by getting 79% of Democrats, her support is just 10.25% off the average Democrat support for the Democrat candidate in the last four elections.

Trump’s 73% of Republicans is 16.25% less than the four election average 89.25. So, if these averages hold, Clinton’s ceiling is just 10.25% additional support should the average number of Democrats “come home;” but Trump’s growing ceiling under the same conditions in 16.25%.

Using the 2012 election numbers, Trump is a very good position provided those holdouts come to his side. The math is not complicated.  In 2012, 29% of those who voted were Independents. Rasmussen says Trump leads this group by 20 points meaning by a 60/40 split is likely. That split would give him 17.4% of the vote; 38% were Democrats. If Trump can get 15% he wins walking away. Rasmussen says he is already getting 13% of Democrats which is already substantially above the 9.75% number of Democrats who voted Republican in the last four cycles.

Moving his Democrat support up to 15% would give Trump another 5.7% of the vote; but getting just 90% support of the Republicans to vote for him, would get Trump another 28.8%. and a grand total of 51.9% which would carry him to a comfortable victory.

It’s all up to those who want what they want, rather than wanting what is good for America. If they change we win our freedom back. If not we will be plunged into darkness for decades.   

2 comments:

  1. The only thing worse and more unbelievable than an evil, soulless, psychotic, aging, delusional and ruthless sociopath running for office, are the number of even crazier people willing to vote for her.

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  2. There is a large block of traditional Republicans who will never vote for Trump. It's very simple.

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