Wednesday, July 13, 2016

New Iowa poll is actually better for Trump than just his 2 point lead

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

Once you get over the fact that according to the pollsters Donald Trump loses in just about every category except head to head, in some polls it becomes instructive to look deeper at the over and under representation of various important groups within the surveyed sample.

A new Monmouth poll makes this point. It says Trump is leading Hillary Clinton by 2 points in Iowa, a state that has not voted Republican since 1988. This is very good news for Trump and very bad news for Clinton. And although it is presented as “no big deal,” it not only is a “big deal” but a bigger deal than a quick glance would suggest.

The poll’s internals show their respondents were 37% Democrats; 35% Republicans and 28% Independents; a group Trump leads Clinton by just 39/35. This is where the sample begins to unravel. The latest Rasmussen survey found Trump leading with Independents by 20 points; moreover in 2012 the percentage of Independent Iowa voters was 34% a full six points more.  

The second disparity between likely voters and what Monmouth used was the 21% percentage of young 18-29 voters compared to 15% in 2012. This group went 56% for Democrat Barack Obama, far above Clinton’s number. In fact an AP survey released this week shows Clinton getting 38% of this group’s support and from a still smaller pool of voters as 16% who say they aren’t voting.

These disparities are large enough to produce a lead for Trump which would be clearly outside the margin of error.

Interestingly enough, Monmouth offered respondents a choice to opt for the Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and 10% said they would vote for him. They probably didn’t tell their respondents that, according to the national Libertarian’s own website, Johnson is not on the ballot in Iowa.

While it is true that Trump is not doing well with young voters who have a history of not being sophisticated enough to vote Republican, he is doing well enough elsewhere on the chart to grab a lead solid enough to force the pollsters to report it.   

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