Friday, July 22, 2016

ARG poll showing Clinton up 43/42 has internal numbers good for Trump and bad for her



By Kevin “Coach” Collins

The implosion of the NeverTrump movement that came with Ted Cruz’s public political suicide will have a very beneficial effect on Donald Trump’s campaign to win the Presidency.

Hillary Clinton was once leading Trump by as much as 12 points.

That has fizzled down to a virtual tie in poll after poll and there are clear reasons why.  

When Hillary was courting Bernie Sanders for his backing she was in the news; and that led to a 7 point Rasmussen lead for Trump because of the “Morris rule.”  

The “Dick Morris rule” says Hillary’s numbers go up when she is out of sight and down when she is before us. The “Rule” came into play when Hillary begged Sanders for support and gave Trump that lead.  Then the Comey report crushed her, so the media allowed Hillary to go into hiding. That hunkering down lasted long enough to help her stay hidden right up to the Trump convention, thus the melting of Trump’s lead.

Trump will not allow her to stay hidden and next week’s freak show/Democrat convention will put her back on the national stage. That will lower her numbers.

A fixable problem for Trump is the significant core of Republicans that have been withholding their support from Trump. That can be fixed.

The Cruz speech that all but destroyed the NeverTrump movement and galvanized the Republican base, seems to have changed the mind of many of the holdouts that have been hesitating to back Trump.

In a new American Research Group (ARG) poll Trump is down one point to Clinton but just 77% of Republicans are supporting him. Moreover, 7% say they will vote for Clinton who has 85% of her Party’s support.

The room for growth of each candidate is not at all the same. In the last four presidential cycles 88% of Democrats voted for their Party’s candidate. This means Clinton has almost maxed out her potential for Democrat support. Trump is in a totally different situation regarding Republican Party support. The four cycle average of Republican support for the Republican candidate is 89.75% meaning Trump has more than 12 points of growth to pick up. His convention will help him bridge this gap.

Once both sides hit their max, Trump will move comfortably ahead. He will never get all the NeverTrump people to support him; but if he can bring half of them back, his lead will be still more comfortable.   

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