Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Trump’s leads in West Virginia and Georgia are meaningful for different reasons

By Kevin “Coach” Collins

A recent poll in West Virginia finds Republican Donald Trump with a large lead over Democrat Hillary Clinton. The numbers are 57/ 30 in favor of Trump.

They show the continuing shift of Party preference in West Virginia and open the possibility of a very serious problem for Clinton. While it is true that even the hapless Mitt Romney beat Barack Obama in West Virginia in 2012 by 62/35, the data that should be very worrisome for Clinton is the 13 points of “Undecided” found in the poll.

The 57/30 spread favoring Trump gives him a growth potential for hitting a 70/30 spread at best and likely at least a 67/33 beating for Clinton.  Among Independents Trump leads 62/23 and with 14% undecided, this suggests a possible final spread of 72/28 for Trump.  

The similarities between West Virginia, rural Pennsylvania and Coal Country Ohio make these numbers very good news for Trump.  

In Georgia, a Landmark/RosettaStone survey shows Trump currently with a thin 43/42 lead over Clinton, but the survey’s internal numbers show lots of danger for Clinton.

For those numbers make it clear that Clinton is not closing the sale with Black voters. She is leading “just” 73/9 (very low for a Democrat) but with 17% of Backs saying they are undecided she could be facing an even bigger problem.

This portends a very strong chance that Trump could get as much as 17% of the African America vote, a devastating blow to Clinton should that trend prevail nationwide.

The survey also blows up the “Trump’s in trouble with women” mantra. Clinton leads Trump among women in Georgia by just 44/39 but Trump leads Clinton by 46/39 among men. The “Trump is in trouble with women” argument is clearly not a settled matter.

If Clinton’s 44% with women and 73% with African Americans in the old South’s most cosmopolitan state is the best she can do, she has lots of work ahead of her. These are supposed to be her strongest voting blocs.   

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