Saturday, April 2, 2016
New Gallup survey: Trump supporter’s “extraordinary enthusiasm” dwarfs enthusiasm of Cruz supporters
Polls and surveys showing someone other than Donald Trump in the lead among the final three contestants for the Republican nomination have to be viewed through the prism of enthusiasm among those who support him and his opponents.
A just released Gallup survey measuring the level of enthusiasm among Trump’s supporters found that 37% are extremely enthusiastic about voting for him and another 28% are very enthusiastic for a whopping 65% on the enthusiasm scale.
For Trump, this compares very favorably to the level of enthusiasm among Ted Cruz supporters which stand at 22% extremely enthusiastic and 17% very enthusiastic for an enthusiasm level of just 39%. John Kasich’s extremely enthusiastic supporters are at 16% and his very enthusiastic supporters are at 17% giving him an enthusiasm level of 33%.
This huge enthusiasm advantage Trump enjoys over his Republican opponents’ carries over in a comparison to the enthusiasm of Hillary Clinton’s supporters as well. Trump’s total 65% enthusiasm far eclipses Clinton’s 54% level.
Moreover this high level of enthusiasm for Trump compares very favorably to the level of enthusiasm for voting by all among Americans.
Contrary to the enthusiasm of Trump supporters which Gallup calls, “extraordinarily high,” the overall level of voter enthusiasm in America has fallen from 54% in January to 47% today.
While enthusiasm is not always a true indicator of eventual turn-out, any candidate would rather be in Trump’s position than where his opponents sit. With enthusiasm so high among Trump supporters, those who are plotting to steal the nomination from him ought to carefully consider the fallout from carrying out their plans. It is not hard to picture as much as 15% of Trump’s supporters staying home and another 5% writing his name in should they feel betrayed by a system run by people they loath to begin with.
Gallup’s report also contained an ominous bit of data that points away from a Cruz turn around and a Trump collapse. When asked if they had given “Quite a lot of thought” to the election, 79% of Cruz supporters said yes and 83% of Trump’s supporters said yes. The only way to interpret this is to say that those who have given the most thought to this process are enthusiastic about Trump and those who have given almost as much thought to the process are not enthusiastic about Cruz. People’s minds are made up.