Sunday, April 10, 2016
Field poll shows Trump up 7 points and the level of enthusiasm among his supporters rising in Calf.
By Kevin “Coach” Collins
Even before the devastating effects of a thorough beating in New York’s Republican primary crash down on Ted Cruz, his fortunes are waning in California.
Not only is he now trailing by 7 points (39/32) after moving up to a statistical tie with Donald Trump, then fading; but the level of enthusiasm among Cruz supporters is falling rapidly.
A Field Poll conducted in California during January found that enthusiasm levels among Trump’s supporters was at 55%. That level has improved to 58% today. While that might not sound impressive when compared to the number among Cruz supporters which is currently at 61%, its value comes in the fact that in January, Field found that Cruz supporters were 74% enthusiastic about the Texas Senator’s candidacy.
What’s more, Field found that many of the same people who delivered a stunning victory to Arnold Schwarzenegger in the 2003 special election are supporting Trump this year. They will vote for Trump at a rate of 54/21 over Cruz.
To be sure Trump has his work cut out for him in California. While it is true it is a “winner take all” state, California awards Republican delegates to the winner in each of the Golden State’s 53 Congressional districts and just 10 for the over- all winner and only 3 Super Delegates.
The general moribund condition of the California Republican Party largely mirrors that of the Republican Party in Trump’s home state of New York. Within the lifetime of many California Republicans and New York Republicans, their Party was victorious in statewide races and delivered their Electoral College Votes to help bring about Ronald Reagan’s huge landslide victory in 1984. Both states have Republican voters who are hungry for a winner.
This said, when Cruz is mathematically eliminated after crashing in New York, Trump will change gears and begin to appeal to Republican primary voters in the remaining states by running against Mitt Romney and Karl Rove’s scheme to steal the nomination from him and run “just another loser.”
It is hard to see how enthusiasm for Cruz actively continuing his campaign, even after his elimination, could survive and propel him to new victories once voters know he is merely running to bring about a contested convention.
Right now Trump has a magic number over 200 with elections in New York and other Northeast states coming up.
Campaigning against Romney and Rove, Trump will hit 1237 with room to spare.