Friday, April 8, 2016
Cruz will be eliminated after New York then Trump will start saying “It’s me or Romney.” Good luck GOPe
By Kevin “Coach” Collins
The worst 10 days of Donald Trump’s campaign got him whooped by Ted Cruz in Wisconsin. Nevertheless, Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination on the first ballot are good.
Trump continues to lead Cruz in states/territories won and has a 226 delegate lead. The math is foreboding for Cruz. He has 517 delegates. There are just 769 delegates to be awarded. This means Cruz must win 720 of these 769 remaining delegates to reach the required 1237 and win a first round nomination. Trump has won 743 delegates so he must win 494 of the remaining 769.
This gives Cruz a “tragic number” of 49 meaning the next time 49 delegates are awarded to anyone but Cruz, he is mathematically eliminated from reaching 1237.
The battle now goes to New York, worth 95 delegates. Trump is way ahead and will knock Cruz out on April 19th. Even the most wishful thinkers have Cruz giving up 60 delegates and seeing his mathematical chances come to an end. Trump will eliminate Cruz by getting about 80 delegates.
Next up is the Northeastern Super Tuesday of April 26th when Pennsylvania 71, Delaware 16, Connecticut 28, Rhode Island 19 and Maryland 38 will be voting.
Trump will frame these races as a contest between himself and Mitt Romney, the presumed savior of the Republican Party and the leader GOP elites can hardly wait to anoint as the 2016 nominee. Painting Romney as a landslide loser won’t be very hard. In fact, anyone Trump portrays as the “heir apparent loser” the GOP aristocracy wants to force down our throats, will have a tough time refuting the charge. “Yes I’m Mitt Romney and I’m asking you to vote for Ted Cruz knowing that a vote for Cruz is a vote to help me steal the nomination.” Does anyone believe Romney will have the guts to admit such a plot? Anyhow, good luck with that campaign theme.
After April 26th Trump should have about 923 delegates with 502 still left and 314 to go to get to 1237.
That’s 62% to the finish line. Running against Mitt Romney he should be able to get there. The numbers say it is very doable.