Saturday, March 19, 2016
Ted Cruz’s campaign is finished; it died with his political suicide on March 11, 2016
By Kevin “Coach” Collins
Last Friday night, because of threatened and actual violence from the likes of Black Lives Matter, Bernie Sanders supporters, Moveon.org, George Soros paid-for La Raza and even Bill Ayers, Donald Trump was forced to cancel his rally in Chicago.
Naturally in short order the cable networks (including Fox News) got comments from each of Trump’s opponents in the Republican primaries. When I saw Ted Cruz getting ready to speak my stomach tightened. I am a strong Trump supporter but I have a deep respect for Cruz’s intellect and quick wit. I honestly thought he would say something like “I disapprove of what Donald Trump says, but I will defend to the death his right to say it,” thereby coming off as a statesman and defender of the 1st Amendment, stealing the moment and perhaps even the following Tuesday’s primary elections.
To my immense relief and satisfaction he did not. He immediately launched into an attack on Trump that could have been made by (and to a great extend was) by Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.
I was mesmerized by what I saw and enjoyed every word. I soon found myself yelling, “Go Teddie go!” as Cruz dug himself a hole and committed political suicide on national television.
The following Tuesday, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, Florida and the Norther Marianas voted. In Ohio John Kasich won and therein came another blow to Cruz, however veiled it was.
In Ohio and Missouri a cursory look at the voting maps shows that Democrats crossed over to vote for both Kasich and Cruz. In both states they drew their greatest support from Democrat strongholds. Nevertheless, the clear exception came in Missouri where the Trump color was (red), the area around Ferguson and St. Louis glowed bright red. In Ohio and Missouri the college-town Democrats turned out for Kasich and Cruz but the counties bordering Pennsylvania were Trump strongholds.
On the surface it would have been easy to say that Cruz got away with his attack on Trump’s 1st Amendment right to speak. Alas with a few days distance from Cruz’s suicide we now know how wrong that is and how much damage Cruz really did to himself.
First keep in mind that Illinois was the most like the Northeastern states, where no one expects Cruz to do anything. The results from Illinois should have poured cold water on even Cruz’s biggest supporters.
As Wednesday and Thursday went by those who follow polling data became suspicious that the Cruz public suicide results were being withheld or – worse still, that he had survived his own suicide. That is not the case.
Today we got the results of an Emerson College poll conducted in New Jersey on Wednesday and Thursday that are so startling they defy anyone’s ability to explain them away.
Speaking to 298 likely Republican primary voters in New Jersey, Emerson found that with a 5.3% MOE, Trump leads 64/ 12 over Cruz. That is not 60/40 with a 10% MOE; it’s 64/12!
The Cruz public suicide effect is glowing. It will be denied and ignored by the media and Cruz supporters as well, but this is huge.
And there is much more.
A recent New York Times article that talked about how Trump had a clear path to the 1,237 delegates he needs was widely discussed yesterday and not surprisingly even Rush Limbaugh missed the far more important information it presented. Embedded in the piece was the fact that Ted Cruz needs to get 87% of the remaining delegates. In any other year with any other candidates, no one would be talking about Cruz as a possible eventual winner at the Cleveland convention.
As things stand if Cruz loses just 235 more delegates he is finished.
In the coming months, primaries in the remaining winner take all states of Arizona, Delaware and New Jersey will give Trump 125 more delegates and leave Cruz with just 210 left to lose. That will give Trump 803.
Given it is his home state and New Jersey is so lopsided, Trump will pick up at least 80 of New York’s 95. That puts Trump at 883 and cuts Cruz’s margin to 130.
Pennsylvania is another state in which Trump will do well. As a Northeasterner state its voters will not be attracted to Cruz and Trump should take at least 50 delegates leaving Cruz with a 70 delegate margin for error and Trump at 933 Maryland’s 38 delegates even split reduce Cruz to 52 a MOE and put Trump at 951
The other states are: Wisconsin WI 42, WTA Indiana 57, Montana 27 WTA South Dakota 29, Utah 40, Ct 28, RI 19, WV 34, Washington 44 and New Mexico 24. Their delegates total 408.
Given the liberal Northwest flavor of Washington it is easy to see Trump getting 35 delegates
Indiana can go 30 Trump and 27 Cruz. South Dakota 29 - Trump runs table. Utah 40 Trump gets 10; Ct 28 Trump gets 20; RI 19 Trump gets all; New Mexico 24 Trump gets 20. This leaves Cruz out.
If Trump gets just 141 of California’s 172 he finishes with 1246.
Those who say Trump has no chance are wrong. When the inevitability of a Trump victory is factored in they become very wrong.
Ted Cruz’s political campaign is dead. His political tombstone will say, “Ted Cruz campaign died March 11, 2016 of political suicide.”